Free tool · 7 inputs

Wishlist revenue estimate

The number most people quote is the sticker price times the wishlist count, and it is wrong by a factor of four or five. Every deduction below is real. Change any of them and watch what happens.

Wishlists at launchThe count on release day, not today.

First-month conversion %Share of wishlists that buy in the first month. 10-20% is the usual band for a launch discount.

Sticker price ($)Your US price before any discount.

Launch discount %10-20% shows the green badge and lifts conversion.

Average regional price, % of USRegional pricing means the average paid is well under the US price.

Refund rate %Higher if the first two hours drag. This is the number a long tutorial costs you.

VAT / sales tax drag %Taken out before your share on most storefront sales.

Copies sold

Average price paid

Gross

Reaches your bank

Copies to clear $1,000

After the discount, regional pricing, refunds and tax, Valve's 70/30 split is applied last. Your platform share can improve at $10M and $50M of lifetime revenue, which is not a rounding error you need to model yet.

Paid version

The version that models the whole runway

Steam Revenue & Runway Calculator: three scenarios, a nine-step revenue waterfall, an 18-month cash runway and break-even, 353 formulas cross-checked by an independent script. Excel and Google Sheets. $14.

See it on Etsy

This is an estimate, not a forecast. Conversion is the number that moves the result most and the one you control least — see how many wishlists you actually need.